Milena Velba E Miosotis

risk and uncertainty.

died in 2010 two visionaries of the economy, for many years, had warned of the risk of certain economic behaviors, just when we face situations that can not be measured in terms of probabilities statistics. Sometimes the risk is too costly to undertake, however small the probability of occurrence, sometimes simply have no criteria to control a situation.

Maurice Allais, Nobel Prize in Economics in 1988 was one of those economists who in his long life he warned of the dangers of globalization for their ability to transfer problems to other economies. Shortly before the beginning of this crisis wrote: "The entire world economy rests on gigantic pyramids of debt which support each other in a fragile balance. Never have we had such potential instability and the threat as clearly a general chaos." Like almost all large Allais was a multifaceted one: history and physical as well as economic. He was always at the root of the issues and noted that it is in human nature make irrational choices, and therefore decisions should be taken in well-constructed institutions. In 1990 he opposed the euro because he saw something risky while Europe did not have a fiscal and political union stronger.

The other deceased is Benoît Mandelbrot, a mathematician known for his geometric, psychedelic structures whose beautiful and inspired a whole generation. Like no other, Mandelbrot realized from the 60 on the risk and uncertainty in the markets, its newest book The misbehavior of markets: a fractal view of risk, ruin and profit. Years ago we refer to it in this newspaper when in Andalusia were suffering a severe drought, as opposed to the idea that the economy and nature are cyclical and tend to balance, Mandelbrot shows that there are periods where the events and markets behave potentially, an improbable event follows another, and instead of balance lead to disaster. Unfortunately we have come up with the drought and the floods, as now, against all odds, succeed episodes of very strong rain. In summer, who would decide to desembalsando water-so scarce for us, in anticipation that it will give late autumn rains that forced desembalsando at the wrong time?

Speaking of living 100 years ago Ronald Coase, Nobel Prize in Economics in 1991, who has dedicated his life to wonder about the nature of the company, which is to inquire into the nature and human behavior. And for his contribution to the technology practice of business decision making with risk and uncertainty, the economist, mathematician and businessman Ramon Trias Capella has been named Entrepreneur of the Year in Catalonia. All of them, dead or alive, are proof that although we do not know much about economics, is the view of some and the questions posed, which is useful for moving forward, groping, the uncertainty. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 28/12/2010)

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Today


Today may be the day for someone who has taken the decision
to do what we think we should, perhaps

Today is the day to remember those who are and who is not,
to fix what you absorbed during sleep, stirs desires and surprises you and it breaks into pieces when you see always in front of you but you are unable to do anything;

Today may be the day to tell the person you love, not so long ago ... it happens;

Today we pick up the phone and say "I have to talk you ", look for the pause in a way where one day broke and left us pale and hungry for words ... let alone watching.

today may not be able to do anything that we dishes, however know continue to live and change that one day I taught a lesson, you learn that right for you is not the best for all, accept yourself as you are still with the cost of feeling sorry for what you know to never come back, that things are as they are without losing the enthusiasm and hope that makes

beat ... you can now look at you differently, not knowing what to do with all that lived, with everything you did for that person, not knowing where to save those kisses, memories, all the love you gave and now it seems that not happened, that ever was, feeling like it was parallel to another person who has lived it you do not feel it was you because you do not find across NOTHING ... not knowing where to keep those sentiments .. hugs or not knowing, not to find the person in any place in your heart this is absent vacuum

My way now I know that is safe, is possible today is the day that we decided to, breathe, laugh, we provide, we cry ... today is the time when you are sharing with me when I say that you are important to me if you're here reading me, no matter how, today is the day you ... thank you, anyone who reads me and never know, my friends in this corner and myself for wanting that which illuminates what is not seen in this side.

Culinary Letter Of Recommendation Samples

With this recipe, and until I leave next year.

I wish you to spend a wonderful holiday and next year bring you the best of your desires.
I leave this post, because I am more than Kings.
always made me very excited, and we enjoyed the same with the gifts that if we gave earlier. We left
shiny shoes, the glasses of milk or champagne for me ..... and treats for the kings and that water for the camels.
To starve and could not go all the houses. Poor things that embarrassment
should take that night !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ MERRY CHRISTMAS !!!!!!!!!

saw this recipe on the blog "Following Nenalinda" and as I saw it I thought that made her day.
not know because I've done, it has fallen 3 times.




We've loved them all. I leave the link
it http://siguiendoanenalinda.blogspot.com/2010/12/nevaditos.html , and certainly if you turn to do the repeat. It has great recipes, but hey I am going to say if you already know and you know all too well .. Print

Lyrical Festival Dress

nevaditos AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS Profiteroles salted meat cannelloni

at a dinner put these profiteroles and we liked a lot.

The good news is you can freeze them before you have to fill and so anytime they desire.

The next I promised to be cream.

Ingredients.

For profiteroles

150 g flour 100 g butter

3 dl of water pinch of salt

4 eggs For the filling

7 surimi sticks.

4 piquillo peppers.

mayonnaise. Ham

Mix the water with the butter and when butter has melted, incoprpora flour and work until the ingredients are todod amalgamate.

Cool slightly and add the eggs slowly shakes and a pinch of salt and stir constantly until everything is integrated.

With a pastry to go about doing heaps sobe a baking sheet with parchment paper and bake at 200 degrees about 15 minutes.

Meanwhile, start preparing the filling.

Putting on the chopper

the remaining ingredients and chop.

When the profiteroles are cold, cut it in half and fill.

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European equities will do well in 2011 Nobel

Earlier this year, our recommendation was to maintain liquidity position. Strong public debt had to stress and raise interest rates, equities was uncertain territory. We made a positive outlook, without reservations, United States, for the momentum to get the economy going, but it just kept the first half of the year. The case of Spain was and is special by the weight they have in the bank rate and the negative influence on them in public debt and real estate sectors, especially the latter, which continue to weigh on the balance sheets of other sectors of the English economy. However, 2011 will be a good year for European equities, which is justified by the six following grounds.

First, we must take into account that the euro area is 57% of Europe's Stoxx 600 index, but the recommendations are for the set. The economic upswing in the European core, euro or not is moderate but steady, the trade balance is in equilibrium, and the euro continues to maintain a 30% appreciation on its initial parity with the dollar. Much has been made on the dangers of debt reduction on the growth of the global economy, but the world economy reported growth of 4% and 8% for emerging and 2% for the rest. Second, if you take the historical average stock price on variables such as sales, liquidity, profits, dividends, the current values \u200b\u200bin general are not particularly attractive, though not far from the mean. However, the fall has been so strong that allows upward revisions, plus the risk premium for action on debt and compared to other markets is well, favoring equities.

A third argument is the situation of liquidity provided by central banks, together with low interest rates. If the above is added that inflation is not high or low, the environment for equities is ideal. A fourth point is the reallocation, for institutional and retail investors, fixed income to equities, this is being seen now, whether by insurance companies as the flows will be listed mutual funds. Fifth, European companies gain in growth and margins, and are not cost pressures, especially those with business markets and emerging economies are in very good shape. Arguably there is a deep value in European companies. And finally, it presents a future of better regulation and less debt, less business ventures that will benefit the long-term investment is not as spectacular but more stable.

Against this background, the European indices are seen in the year between 10% and 15%, closer to the latter, prevailing basic resources, food, mining, retailers, and financial sector with less exposure to public debt and real estate. Above all, companies who do business with and in emerging countries. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 21/12/2010)

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Notícia
Mallorca. 10/12/1918
http://www.es.amnesty.org/es/gruposlocales/balears/grupos/mallorca/paginas/noticia/articulo/reunion-de-ai-mallorca-ibiza-en-la-capital- de-les-pitiueses /


gathered Notícia d'AI Mallorca - Eivissa to the capital of their Pitiüses
The passat desembre 14, the group of AI Mallorca - Eivissa, is brought Eivissa organitzar a companys amb the islands. As a main topic raised the possibility of reactivating the role and presence for the first quarter of 2011 from Amnesty International to the islands.
From this website we want to thank the colleagues in their presence, their interest and commitment to human rights.
In 2011 marks the 50th anniversary of AI, is a very important milestone for our organization, which can not miss the presence and contributions of colleagues from the islands.
Thank you, lots of years and our best wishes for 2011 to everyone.


Number Meeting of Mallorca - Ibiza in the capital of the islands. The past
14 December, AI group Mallorca - Ibiza, Ibiza organized a meeting with colleagues from the Balearic Islands. As the main topic raised the possibility of reactivating the role and presence for the first quarter of 2011 by Amnesty International in the Balearic Islands.
From this website we are grateful to the colleagues / Pitiuses you of their presence, interest and commitment to human rights.
The 2011 is celebrating 50 years of AI, is a very important day for our organization, which can not lack the presence and contributions of their peers / os in the Balearic Islands.
Thank you, happy holidays and best wishes for 2011 for all.

OPINION;

We have begun, I think and believe that in Ibiza you can do a great job for the time we had a meeting since February and the first campaign will be organized to make yourself known, find new volunteers in Ibiza, trying to create a pool of necessary to reach goals and achieve positive results.

I have confidence that if we try, work hard, we do not lack the enthusiasm and spare us the hope that things can change, we can accomplish great things.

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was pretty

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squares of chocolate and jelly birthday cake

I leave these squares I did an afternoon snack. I must say I flew
. It did not last at all.

has been a non-stop to visit the kitchen and every time we went, leaving no empty hand



Ingredients 5 eggs 1 egg yolk

75 g sugar 90 g

flour ½ tsp baking powder Nutella

peach jam



Beat eggs and yolks with sugar. Add the sifted flour and baking powder and stir until incorporated.
cover a baking tray with baking paper and pour the mixture over top, spreading with spatula to make it as
precalnetado Bake in oven at 180 º for 12 minutes, until starting to brown.
Dump the cake on another paper and cut into squares. Extends
on some jam and other Nutella and top with another square. Garnish with melted chocolate

Print

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This has been my birthday cake. I wanted to make another pie differently, but knowing the family, we know that has to be cream and chocolate. Look

have no remedy.

take to do other cakes, when friends come, so I can vary a bit

This time the cake I have done differently and the truth is that it has been very rich and filling, you can put whatever you want

Ingredients 440 g of flour. 35 g

sugar.

2 teaspoons baking powder 100 g butter

125 g cream cheese

brown cane sugar 1 pinch salt

.

chocolate whipped cream melted chocolate balls

Mix flour, baking powder, salt, butter, cheese and 1 dl d eagua and knead until it forms a smooth paste forms a ball. Cover and let

1 hour in the refrigerator. Divide in DOAS

parts and stretch to form two identical disks

Cut a star or a flower.

mooreno Sprinkle with sugar and bake one at 15 minutes in the oven to 220 º preclaentado.

Arrange the whole disk and populates a molten layer echocolate d, when it is dry, lay another layer of cream and place the other cake on top.

in the gaps left by the flowers, place chocolate and sprinkle chocolate morsels

Print

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Political Economy of Policy

Norwegians can afford to challenge China, the bilateral trade between both countries reached 6,000 million dollars, insignificant to China, but the public fund Norway has more than 500,000 million dollars available for investment. Norway is the visible face of the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, imprisoned in their country, and although the committee that awards the prize is independent of government, it is difficult to understand by dictatorial regimes, used to decide on most .

Norwegian oil technology and services with energy is strategically important to China. Statoil, the Norwegian oil company maintains public relations with China Sinope, which have not been so far affected by this issue. Pragmatism prevails, as in many matters, and China has had to convince a group of countries, not democratic, in his failed attempt to boycott the award ceremony. This has been a good opportunity to see China's role in the world, and their attitudes. It has already happened in other occasions with the censorship of Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, and more recently Twitter, then before media monopolized by the state and regional governments, it follows that the population tipping alternatives. It is far from terror as a rule of the Mao era, but it is a one-party country to apply any method at their disposal if he sees his future at stake. And you will, of course, to control the information technology and communications, because although the content and discussions on the web often a frustrating banality, can challenge and damage the marketing of despotism.

face of the impressive figures that move about 1,300 million people, the country's growth reproduces the same patterns of Western and global and national generates very serious pollution, pressure on raw materials water, habitable land, with an excessive production of goods, sometimes obnoxious and use quality, which are ephemeral demand in rich and poor countries by their very low prices. But if we apply to China the criteria for social security coverage and pensions, health services, social infrastructure, which have been challenged among us, the country would be bankrupt. Only state control of the economy and freedom of expression prevents labor and social demands will undoubtedly be forced to redistribute the fruits of growth and change the shape.

would be a mistake to view China as a monolithic bloc with a single criterion. All Regarding the country is complex. However, there is a principle that anyone who does business with China knows, is that nothing offends them more than a humiliating situation, or suffer a loss of reputation, is what is known as "losing face." The Nobel award to Liu Xiaobo while in jail is especially embarrassing. It would have been better for the person you negotiate before the prize, and leave the initiative to free the Chinese government. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 10/14/2010)

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passive, active.

Early in the crisis was the idea that general reforms that facilitate the life of companies, consumer support, and the international recovery would sooner or later the situation. Then came the rescue and reform the financial system and attacks on public debt, both together and improvised urgent interventions by central banks and governments, beyond what is imaginable only three years ago. No one has done, as I know, a comprehensive approach to economic and social changes that must occur, with the complexity and depth that this crisis requires, including the most necessary, such as reform-minded, attitudes and behaviors.

The government has tabled a package of measures involving a shift from policies passive, to keep the breath of the economy, active policies that seek to boost business. Not to extend aid to the unemployed can be seen as an extreme consequence of retrenchment. But if we consider, indeed, human resources as an asset and not a burden, training people to access prospective employment, within or outside our country, is an important investment. The job search has to be very active, and the aid should go away now, but conditional on effective training, decided by the companies themselves.

other hand, what a mistake to eliminate the mandatory contribution of SMEs to the chambers of commerce, many of them are already exempt and most pay very small amounts, but the cameras use these revenues to provide business training services, innovation, technology and internationalization very valuable. In addition, redistribute the resources obtained from large companies that do not use these services for SMEs. This measure goes against an active policy, that of the chambers, with a passive, as a supposed fiscal support to the company.

on reducing the tax burden for SMEs, it is effective if businesses make profits and spend the tax savings to reduce debt and, if possible, to capitalize and invest. Same as the freedom of redemption, which allows the assignation plus accounting, reducing benefits and pay less tax. But nobody has the key to how to make the credit flow to small and medium business, and how to reduce the arrears, which is the real problem. Privatizations have many nuances, and the Board has made it clear that only reduces their participation, through the agency idea, in private companies in strategic sectors, non-public. The entry of private capital to minority airports and the lottery has been welcomed, as these revenues reduce debt issues and his announcement only pressure drops in the markets. Always

interest long-term investors in business stable and experienced management. Andalusian private capital would have to be aware of these movements, which would link investments such as airports with the interests of Spain. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 12/07/2010)

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Usual Suspects.

last Friday afternoon, I heard a commentator on a public radio station saying that a differential of 2.5 percentage points on English debt the German "scary." I was afraid to hear, and most of the comments that followed, including not only politicians and experts, but a European commissioner and someone from the employers' confederation, among others.

should distinguish the following about the debt. First, it is appropriate to compare with the German debt, because their rates are artificially low, considering a very liquid market and a refuge, it would be fairer comparison with a country like Italy. A year ago the ten-year bond was in Germany to 3.40% and 4% in English, German debt today this term is 2.4% and 5.4% English. The increase is due to the double differential effect indicated that while the other goes low. In addition, increases in absolute terms they are still reduced because we are historically low rates, and the ups and downs just adjusting in less than one percentage point. I would not buy German and U.S. debt, I think there's a bubble in them, because interest rates 2.65% and 2.80%, respectively, for ten years, did not respond to any fundamental criterion in these countries. Rates between 5% and 6% are the most reasonable in Europe.

Second, Germany is the great beneficiary of the euro, allowing you to expand its industrial production in an area protected from the vagaries of the coins. If you continue to enjoy their situation has to bear the consequences of the debt of countries in the area the euro, issued largely to finance the growth and absorption of immigrants in the area. Third, Germany has more debt than Spain, but less private, business and banks borrow to produce and invest, or speculative activities as have been the acquisition of other companies, now have to pay the consequences of inadequate investment and further forward. Fourth, the public and private debt are now closely linked, in Ireland the State wished to come to the rescue of the banks exceeded the national economy, and the attack on the public debt is an attack on banks and firms, especially in the bags. The meeting with English Prime Minister large companies seeking a common strategy makes sense, since they are listed who suffer the vicissitudes of the market.

Fifth, when it comes to reassure the markets know that these are naturally neurotic, bullish or bearish, with moments hysterical. Volatility is what gives good benefits, not calm. After Asia and Europe will then North America (not sure if that order). Markets have the power to limit excesses and correct errors require public and private, but if there is no strong responses from governments and central banks will impose the kind of dictatorship where everyone is suspicious of something, and in which, by reciprocity, also considered suspect in the markets. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 11/30/2010)

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realities and illusions.

THE problem of Ireland is a more recent history of excesses, in this case of banks that grow well in excess of the gross national product, are financed externally and real estate and financial investments made unwise, within and outside the country. In the years preceding the crisis that is applauded for stimulating productive activity and creating employment, but when the value of these investments falls on bank balance sheets and lost the confidence of retail and wholesale customers, the problems begin.

The Government acted decisively, guaranteed deposits and set up a bank, the Nama, who took charge of impaired real estate assets. Allied Irish Banks like Bank of Ireland or are partially nationalized and others such as Anglo Irish, are having removed some of its bondholders for almost 80%. No action was wrong, but the crisis is teaching us that sometimes it's not a question of wanting but of power, and here the banks are too big for such a small country has to accept, finally, external public funding. When missing deposits and financing banks use the ECB, but it does not take much responsibility indefinitely. Bank debt affects the Irish public debt, and creates tensions in the European Union and the euro itself, but the EU has a fund of 750,000 million euros are still unused and the Central Bank's resources are in emergency, virtually unlimited. England and Sweden will also contribute because it affects them. There is no shame for a country to resort to financing from its partners, to be returned.

Ireland has a corporate tax of 12.5%, with which he has been able to attract investments that were unimaginable a few years ago. Hence the reluctance of the Government to accept funding comes with requirements to raise taxes to clean up public finances. I sympathize with that rate so low that it helps create business and employment, but it is clear that the disorderly growth of investment and financing, as happened with the residential and nonresidential construction has caused a serious problem for the system, now should be paid.

original is not the case in Ireland remember the classic play Synge: The Playboy of the West, where Christy, the protagonist becomes a hero by the need to delude people with something really out of his secular peasant Christy himself, before its ultimate failure, acquires sufficient stature to win between them. Synge, in the preface, says: "In Ireland, for years the popular imagination is bold, beautiful and tender, so the writers have something to do not have the spontaneity that live where local life has been forgotten, harvesting is only one memory, and the straw has become a brick. " It remains an irony that one hundred years after problems come not from modernity, as the country has a good industry innovation, high technology, but finance and real estate adventures. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 23/11/2010)

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The barbarous relic.

The price of gold rose nearly 25% in 2009 and 30% in 2010 on already high levels. The reference price of gold is always in dollars, but if we see in different currencies, and on the base 100 in 1970, would have risen at a rate up to 1,000 yen, 4,000 dollars, 4,500 euros, and 5,700 in British pounds . After more expensive in the 80's, remains fairly stable for twenty years, which leads to the disproportionate rise in value over the past five years.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick has suggested the possibility of reforming the exchange rate system, removing and replacing the dollar ownership of a basket of currencies (including the Chinese yuan), which act as currency in international transactions. This will stand to gain in stability and avoid speculation as there are now against the debt of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy to attack the euro. Moreover, and here is new, that basket of currencies, which would work in practice as a major international currency would refer to gold, with the role of limiting the amount of money that can be emitted in the world. Gold would also be used as a reference for each currency and movements between them, that is, say if the exchange rates at all times have a reasonable basis.

However, gold may again play a role reference in the international monetary system. In 1971 the dollar no longer convertible into gold, which had limited the creation of money and financial bubbles, for every dollar issued had to have a corresponding amount of gold, then an ounce of gold was worth $ 35, and now 1,400. But the global economy grows and the supply of gold is stable and therefore can not be a reference to money growth. Moreover, gold is an asset class and its value depends on the speculation of those who, for various reasons, choose to have or not their investments and savings in gold. In times of inflation serves to protect against the loss of purchasing power, an erratic stock market, of a housing bubble, international conflicts, and now subject to currency speculation. It is a refuge in uncertainty, it is not known where to invest.

was Keynes who called gold "the barbarous relic", and today we consider it more relic in relation to the problems of the international economy, and more barbaric for the reasons underlying their hoarding. On the contrary, the proposal to use a group of hard currency is viable, but must be accompanied by a balance between what countries are buying and selling, and investment flows. This is the real challenge that will force us to rethink the relations between China and the U.S. and within the EU, so that the internal job growth and more balanced and responsive euro to a more homogeneous. If this occurs it would make more sense to keep investing in different assets in hard currency and give, little by little gold. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 15/11/2010)

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Cultural cities.

Some cities are striving to achieve a degree of cultural capital as a form of promotion and conveniently positioned in the global economy. But sometimes, as in many things, people and circumstances are the ones who get a point and city stand out from others. Already in the ninth century prided Compostela to hold the remains of St. James the Great, but the city gets its momentum in an exact date: the year 1100, when he was appointed Bishop Diego Gelmírez, who manages, with remarkable tenacity and dedication, which is Compostela, along with Jerusalem and Rome, a city of pilgrimage.

is obvious that the figure of Santiago had no religious significance to the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem or the remains of St. Peter in Rome, the first required a dangerous journey, but allowed to live where religion was conceived, and Rome , besides being the center of religious politics, had a rich culture and unique monumental. Gelmírez going to Rome two Sometimes, on a difficult journey through northern Spain, where he was banished Aragon avoiding the former Bishop of Compostela, Diego Pelaez, across France, and Italy. Previously he had been in Portugal, in Braga, which also spurred the construction of a church of pilgrimage, contains relics of saints, with the excuse that they were subject to care and due worship, and takes them to Compostela, reinforcing their arguments to make the archiepiscopal city. Twenty years later he was granted this distinction, and between 1100 and 1140 constructed the temple not only more meaningful and functional for long-distance pilgrimages, but gives way to a destination with unique significance.

Compostela and the Way of Santiago have been interpreted from a religious, cultural, architectural and artistic philosophy of life, linking European countries, and economic. Some approaches are questionable, as if the roads were European arteries default or spontaneous movement of pilgrims, the influence of other cities, or trade between workshops and artisans. But discussions are irrelevant compared to the results, as is trying to reduce what he has to do with Compostela and the Way to costs or economic data. As

trip, the pilgrimage is marked, even today, by the austerity and rigor as opposed to other aspects of modern life. The purpose is something intangible, has an international reference with a local base and features very meanings and rituals, a strong cultural component, which calls for very different audiences, and a brand that makes it unique and original. Gelmírez promoted infrastructure, water, hospitals, grammar schools, palaces, and the works of the cathedral services were emerging and diversified to meet the needs of travelers throughout the centuries. This man, "affectionate, creative and humorous," taught an idea, hard work and effort, believe in what you do, and some luck, can yield results that range for centuries, and last longer than an ephemeral cultural capital. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 11/09/2010)

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time anxiety.

LOS countries called the group of twenty, G20, reúnenesta week in South Korea in an atmosphere heated by global economic imbalances. Since fighting is not between rich and poor but between those who have trade surpluses that they sell more they buy, and those who consume more than produce and show a deficit. The first, also are savers and accumulate huge foreign reserves, currently, one third of the world's creditor, a third debtor and the remainder maintain balanced trade position.

growth emerging economies generates less employment, as companies have been adjusted by the crisis staff and try to keep as reducing production costs. Therefore, they draw to depreciate their currencies to sell more cheaply and create employment. What is called "new normal" response to a situation in emerging economies like China, Brazil, India, Russia and Turkey seem to be poised to play a key role in world affairs by the weight gained after the crisis, global economy.

But the rebalancing of international trade is only the manifestation substantive issues currently affecting almost all nations. Not just about trade talks between China and the United States, or concern for the exchange rate in Korea or Brazil, but the imbalances and conflicts that have internally and countries that emerge in these meetings.

The list of problems faced by states has been extended, have assumed responsibilities that respond to new challenges, because of the way of economic growth. Have created expectations in people that can not be met, at least all at once: to grow and create jobs with fair play in markets increasingly difficult, maintaining the gains of the welfare state known as working conditions, pensions, health and education, addressing a consumer needs to be continually expanded to incorporate a virtually unlimited range of goods and services that are available, are offered, and we all want. In addition, there are concerns about how growth, environmental damage, weather disasters, depletion of raw materials, water, immigration, the population of Portugal and the deteriorating quality of urban life, terrorism and organized crime. And the perceived threat-real or imagined-of the new economic powers often ignore their responsibilities and do not respect basic civil rights, dictatorial regimes or clothed by strategic interests, trade or access to raw materials, as with China in relation to some African countries or with its neighbors North Korea and Burma.

In a situation of uncertainty, people do not forgive, and in democracies in the elections to punish their leaders for the consequences of a crisis that developed under previous governments, but also have confidence that those who replace their expectations will be covered .

have questioned the legitimacy of the G20 to make decisions that affect humanity. In this sense the representation could be improved by maintaining a small but expanding it into three or four countries, with criteria such as the weight in the population and the global economy and establish a regional representative for not leaving out parts of the world as the Nordic countries or large parts of Africa. It is true that the G20 has no executive capacity, but moral persuasion is a sign of unity among countries facing a serious crisis.

is important for nations to meet, talk and reach agreements on issues such as greater discipline to the financial system and avoid greater evils in the trade. This I have been advocating since the first meeting of which will be two years in November.

Now is the Age of Anxiety is the title of a long poem by WH Auden, which won the Pulitzer Prize in 1948, written between 1944 and 1947, reflects the moral impoverishment of the time and the lack of response from leaders to avoid collective folly and catastrophe. As is to tell the writer Catherine Bucknell, an economic crisis does not have as crudely as a war so bad in human nature, at least on an epic scale, but it generates anxieties, if not remedied, lead to fears and larger, false reasoning and injustice. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 09/11/2010)

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Preparing the future. Paradoxes

RESULTS essential to refer to the Forum of Tourism in the Mediterranean, Meditour, which held its fourth edition in Manchester a few weeks ago, as few events take place on this scale and of such importance to Spain. In the present circumstances the tourism, agriculture and some industrial exports, render the situation, though difficult, is not desperate for this reason we articulate some ideas about Meditour.

The first is the variety of issues that arise around a modern tourism, technologically advanced and open to innovation. There was talk of issues such as sustainable tourism in a fragile area of view as is the Mediterranean climate, and how to balance energy consumption, the impact of agglomeration and transportation, with the development of the activity. Other issues included: strengthening the brand of the Mediterranean to the promotion of tourism, since the area receives 30% of international tourists and is a major destination for world tourism linkages with financial sector capable of creating investment tools to the sector, innovation in tourism products, expand the industry best practices and corporate social responsibility in multinational companies are given, and last but perhaps most importantly, the role of our capital human as an asset and competitive advantage in tourism.

The second idea arises from the Forum is willing to anticipate the changes that occur in the world. We are faced with situations of uncertainty that predictions made with data break from the past, but we can think of reasonable scenarios. Despite all our problems, what would today's economy if we did not Andalucía this infrastructure of ports, airports, roads, railways, hotels, restaurants and golf courses? Now is the time to prepare for the future with new projects that maintain and enhance this industry and see how it connects to other industries and construction. The third idea is institutional. Meditour is an initiative of the Chamber of Commerce of Malaga, who chairs the tourism committee of the Association of Chambers of the Mediterranean and the Mediterranean Centre for Innovation in Tourism, along with other entities. It is imperative that all institutions are aware of the importance of the Forum and to work without hesitation, actively, in the same, this is a responsibility that can not be avoided.

died a few weeks ago Vladimir Raitz, pioneer and inventor, through Horizon Holidays, mass tourism and package holidays for British tourists, a concept introduced in 1949. This form of travel, collectively and low budget, was widely criticized as an exponent of mass-consumption and has an air of vulgarity, but it is undoubtedly a political force, social and economic that could not be ignored. His memoirs, collected in flight toward the sun, are recommended for anyone interested in the sector, but mainly because we have an image of innovative entrepreneur anticipates and creates the future.

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IN the Report of the Institute of Real Estate Analysis no data on the sector that are worth highlighting. One is the price range, minimum and maximum of a sample, including can offer and demand a house in the provincial capitals. This data ranges for Spain between 895 and 3,462 euros per square meter, but beyond the differences within and between cities, the interesting thing is that there is a slight recent rise in housing prices cheaper, and a fall in the most expensive.

The number of appraisals is a way of seeing the activity of the sector. In 2006 he performed in the first half, the highest point, 484,000 appraisals, then decrease slightly, reaching at least a year ago with 224,000. The last given the first half of 2010 show a rise for Spain is 14% and 5% in Andalusia, in addition, thus increasing housing valuations are free of second hand, while still dropping the new housing. Although it may be due to the effect of VAT, something is beginning to move in the housing market. Gumersindo

Ruiz.

(Grupo Joly 10/19/2010)

is also interesting recent developments in modal unit prices of homes, comparing the first half of 2009 and 2010, gathering the provincial capital in tranches, Cadiz has a drop of more than 5%, Granada, Almeria, Seville and Huelva are in the stretch falling between 5% and zero, Malaga and Cordoba are not moving, and Jan is in the uphill between zero and 5% . Within the market crisis Real estate is also geographically different in housing starts and finished, in the report are made only eleven English provinces which began in 2005, more houses, of which four are Andalusian. As housing starts fall 49% in Manchester and 83% in Almería, and up 18% in Seville and Cadiz 73%, although the figures in these two provinces are very small. Dwellings completed in the fall stands in Malaga, at 37%.

is striking real estate activity index (which sum mortgages, income and expenses for construction and housing transactions.) Based on 100 in 2004, Spain is now 32, and Andalusia in 22. Malaga, with a rate of 12 is facing the greatest relative decline in activity, a drop that has already begun in 2005. Finally, the estimation of free housing stock, with different scenarios on supply and demand swings for Spain in a million homes in 2010, to 650,000, giving as good an estimate of the Ministry of Housing in 2009. As so few homes are beginning could be the case that in 2012 the stock was around 200,000, and in some very specific areas might even have more demand than supply.

conclusion of this complex data, there are signs that it might return activity. We must continue the sector in more detail, take care that there is credit for viable projects, and, above all, avoid generalizations, it is a sector that must continue to play an important role in the economy, and whose weight will naturally correcting .

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real estate economy possible.

When Schumacher published more than thirty years his book "Small is beautiful", took place in the world an almost complete identification with their ideas, perhaps due to distrust the power of large corporations . In fact, as evidenced by this crisis have been large financial institutions, industrial, major promoters, which have undermined the global economic system. But it would be naive to deny the ability of the company with an international dimension to create good working conditions, capitalized, developing technologies and compete, so it's best not to consider the small and large as two conflicting or contrary ways, but with different roles.

few weeks ago, in an organized visit to Tacoma, in Tenerife, on the occasion of the meeting of the association Arethusa, who was born in Malaga twenty-six years, bringing together universities in Southern Europe, I was struck by an experience that has years now, a "farmer's market." It is an answer given producers to price and marketing problems, selling its products direct. With all his modesty, is a very interesting example of how to address the issue of brokering in agriculture. Marketing processes have to prove that report a value added product, explain the differences between consumer prices and production. The distribution of benefits among producers, processors, transporters and distributors is the subject of ongoing debate, in fact, the abandonment of the countryside by farmers is primarily because the low prices they receive.

Tacoronte differ in their market because the products are mainly local with guarantee of origin, the development is quite sophisticated, there are no guarantees in the process of development, in general eco-agriculture, without chemical opportunist and a health check and rigorous quality. The organization is also unusual because the project is self-managed, but has direct support from the Technical Secretariat of the Ministry of Agriculture, and the council for the City. It is a case study of Elinor Ostrom studying on how to organize companies, institutions and social groups to find solutions within the market, the management or use of a common thing in this case agricultural production. The "market Farmers "has its web page, and performs an educational function, supplemented by the Agricultural Training School, disseminating agricultural technology processes, and organizational and business management.

In this crisis the food industry is among the few that is sustained international demand, despite fluctuations, prices of food and raw materials are maintained at relatively high levels. The experience of Tacoma is an example of how to survive in the rural environment, information and communications technologies, providing technical content to the occupation of farmer, attending a selective demand, especially with an organization has been refined over the years. It is certainly something to admire and emulate. Gumersindo

Ruiz (Grupo Joly 10/12/2010)

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